Some hints on reading fire weather forecasts

Since I am following the fire weather forecasts, I had to figure out a few cryptic references. Among them…

CWR is “Chance of Wetting Rain” — how likely it is that you’ll see more than about 0.1 inches of rain.

The “Haines Index” is used to indicate the potential for wildfire growth by measuring the stability and dryness of the air over a fire. Values range from 2 to 6. The smaller the number, the better.

LAL is “Lightning Activity Level.” It ranges from 1 to 6. See below for details but, again, the smaller the number the better when it comes to fire suppression.

LAL - Lightning Activity Level Table
LAL – Lightning Activity Level Table

(PDF of above image)

August National Wildland Fire Potential Outlook

July 29, 2021 Hay Creek Fire - USFS
July 29, 2021 Hay Creek Fire – USFS

Good Afternoon!  The August/September/October Wildland Fire Potential Outlook was posted this morning, and it doesn’t contain good news for the North Fork or Montana.

In contrast to the July Outlook, the August Outlook projects Above Normal Wildland Fire Potential to extend through September in addition to August.  The July Outlook had us returning to normal in September.  Above Normal conditions will persist in October on the Eastside.  Northwest Montana should return to normal in October.  Here are some excerpts: Continue reading August National Wildland Fire Potential Outlook

Structure defense planning and assessments under way

July 29, 2021 Hay Creek Fire - USFS
July 29, 2021 Hay Creek Fire – USFS

This just in from Marc Peebles, one of the Public Information Officers (PIOs) with the Type 2 team currently managing the Hay Creek Fire…

I just wanted share that we will have Pete Lawrence our Structure Protection Specialist (STPS) and a Safety Officer in the North Fork area today doing structure defense planning and assessments. The community will certainly see him today.

Pete is a nice guy and is very experienced in structure defense.

PIO’s will be on the trapline and engaging with the public at every opportunity throughout the day.

Hay Creek Fire – Incident Update for August 1

INCIDENT UPDATE

The management of the Hay Creek Fire has transitioned to California Interagency Incident Management Team (IMT) 13 led by Incident Commander Michael Wakoski as of 7am. The Incident Command Post is based in the West Glacier area. They worked closely with the previous IMT to ensure a smooth transition and are committed to working with the local communities and cooperators.

Fire activity remained active yesterday on both the east and west flanks, with continued nighttime activity primarily on the western flank. The fire is backing and flanking, slowly burning through the available fuels north of the Hay Creek Road #376. Heavy equipment task forces are continuing work to widen and reinforce established roads and fuel breaks along primary and contingency lines west of the North Fork Road.

Grading and dust abatement operations on the North Fork Road south of the Camas intersection have been completed. Travels are cautioned that there will be increased fire traffic in the area. Most of Montana is experiencing EXTREME fire danger; Stage 2 Fire Restrictions are in effect. Know Before You Go- Visit www.mtfireinfo.org for Montana fire restrictions.

EVACUATIONS

Evacuation Warnings include all residences east and west of the North Fork Road from Home Ranch Bottoms north to and including Moose Creek Road and the community of Polebridge. Glacier National Park has issued an Evacuation Warning for the North Fork area of Glacier National Park north of Logging Creek. See details at https://go.usa.gov/xFjcA and Current Fire Information – Glacier National Park.

CLOSURES

Road and trail closures are in place. See details at Inciweb: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/article/7712/62192/.

WEATHER AND AIR QUALITY

Continue reading Hay Creek Fire – Incident Update for August 1

Hay Creek Fire – Incident Update for July 31

(PDF version of this document: 2021-07-31-HayCreek-FNF-Update.pdf)

INCIDENT UPDATE

The southwest flank of the fire remains the most active, exhibiting single and group tree torching and making short crown runs. Overall fire behavior is moderate however, unseasonably hot and dry conditions will result in noticeable fire activity continuing overnight.

Conditions during the burn period on Friday allowed for further firing operations from the Hay Creek Road along the eastern front with the intent to reduce available fuels ahead of the main fire. Helicopters dropped buckets along the southwest flank of the fire to aid ground personnel in holding their line along the road.

Previously established roads and fuel breaks are being widened and reinforced along primary and contingency lines between the main fire and private properties to the east.

EVACUATIONS

Evacuation Warnings include all residences east and west of the North Fork Road from Home Ranch Bottoms north to and including Moose Creek Road and the community of Polebridge. Glacier National Park has issued an Evacuation Warning for the North Fork area of Glacier National Park north of Logging Creek. See details at https://go.usa.gov/xFjcA and Current Fire Information – Glacier National Park.

CLOSURES

Road and trail closures are in place. See details at Inciweb: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/article/7712/62192/.

WEATHER AND AIR QUALITY

Continue reading Hay Creek Fire – Incident Update for July 31