Category: Committees

Attached is the October 1 National Fire Potential Outlook:  http://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf.

While it states that the fire season is over in the Northern Rockies: 

Northern Rockies: Significant wildland fire potential will be normal for the outlook period October, November, and December 2015 through January 2016.

Wet storms in early September greatly reduced fire potential with most indices across the geographic area near normal conditions. Some increases occurred with the warm and dry conditions over southeastern and south central Montana but shorter days and cooler nights will keep fuel moisture rising into the fall. Some evidence of drought stress in live vegetation across the western half of the area will likely be a factor for the 2016 fire season. El Niño conditions deep into the winter suggest poor snow conditions and continuation of drought across the area.

Fire season for 2015 is essentially over for the Northern Rockies. However, significant wind events during the fall-to-winter transition could produce brief fire concerns in the fine fuels east of the continental divide until snow falls. This will likely be delayed given the forecast of El Niño conditions.

According to the USFS report in the Daily Interlake dated October 1, 2015, fires will continue to burn until significant RAIN and or SNOW. At this time the fires in Lincoln County continue to burn but pose NO immediate threat to Private Property.

Marston Fire is now over 7000 acres.
Goat Rock Fire is over 22000 Acres.

The fire season is being lifted in Flathead County has been moved to Open burning. However the following information should be followed.

1. Check the weather forecast and air quality for Rain and or Wind events.
2. Establish a fire line and clear the Perimeter around your fire, down to bare soil.
3. Have an adequate WATER supply and EXTRA persons to help control any fire that might escape your control.
4. NEVER leave any fire unattended!
5. Start debris fires small and add in small amounts to insure you can keep your fire contained.
6. Always REMEMBER that you can be held Financially Responsible for suppression costs, should your fire escape!

Lynn P. Ogle
Fire Chief, Trail Creek Irregulars

Firewise Day

The Fire Mitigation Committee sponsored a successful Firewise Day workshop on July 15, 2015, preceding the Summer Interlocal meeting. About sixty people attended. Committee co-chair Allen Chrisman put together an excellent program, with presenters from all of the agencies with wildfire responsibilities on the North Fork. As ever, the committee is grateful for their long-term collaboration.

Lincoln Chute was among the presenters at the workshop. He is Flathead County Fire Service Area Manager and now a member of the Fire Mitigation Committee.   He reminded attendees that wildfire preparedness is a matter of personal responsibility. There’s only so much that firefighters can do. Furthermore, landowners can’t count on having fire engines available to save their homes, since a shortage of volunteers has made it difficult to staff engines. He urged landowners to put their addresses on posts or mailboxes marking their driveways, using reflective numbers that can be easily seen in an emergency.

Mr. Chute and other presenters also discussed the danger of ember showers, which can ignite structures or the fuels around them a long way from a fire front. Decks and vents are especially problematic in an ember shower. Presenters encouraged landowners to inspect in and around their homes, to identify places where an ember might enter or ignite flammable materials, and to take steps to mitigate any hazards. Don’t store firewood on decks and do cover the openings to woodsheds, preferably with canvas or fire-resistant material. Cut the grass around structures and keep it green. Clean up the brush around propane tanks.

Manny Mendoza of the USDA Forest Service highlighted dangerously dry conditions so far this year. The area experienced the hottest, driest June in history. Although some rain and cooler temperatures in early July moderated the danger, Mr. Mendoza remarked that we’re still on the same track we were on in 2001 and 2003, when we had massive fires on the North Fork.

Grant Status

Progress has been made on the Trail Creek ingress-egress project. Duke and Naomi Hoiland have done significant work along their stretch of Trail Creek Road. Other landowners with frontage on the road are initiating fuels reduction projects, with assistance from the North Fork’s fourth cost-share grant.

Here is the latest Wildland Fire Potential Outlook:  http://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf.

They have been pretty accurate this year in their forecasts. Here are a couple of excerpts from the Outlook regarding the Northern Rockies:

Northern Rockies: Above normal significant wildland fire potential will continue over northern Idaho and northwestern Montana from August through mid-September, with conditions returning to normal for the remainder of the outlook period through November. The rest of the Area will see normal significant wildland fire potential for the entire outlook period.

Long range data suggests that typical hot and dry conditions can be expected for August and early September, which would promote normal activity during the peak of fire season in most areas, except northwest Montana and N Idaho where above normal activity is possible. The same data suggests a pattern shift to a cool, wet pattern during the second half of September. Should this occur, it should be sufficient to begin to wind down fire season 2015.

Looking beyond September, the Northern Rockies Region is typically out of fire season. However, significant wind events during the transition from fall to winter can sometimes produce brief flare ups of activity mainly east of the Continental Divide until the snow falls. Given that this will be an El Niño fall and early winter, chances are good that the arrival of the winter snow will be late.
While it mentions elsewhere in the report that the dead fuels in Northern Idaho and Western Montana have extremely low moisture content, they also note that the live fuels are cured, dry and available. We might be in a little better shape up the North Fork in terms of live fuels, especially those that are shaded and not out in the open. This is small consolation, however, since as we have observed, fires will move quickly through the dead component and consume the live component even if the live component does not actively assist in the spread.

So, I’m looking forward to the middle of September and hope that cooler, moister conditions move in as forecasted. Until then, keep your fire tools sharp and your water handy…

Below is the most recent ERC (Energy Release Component) graph for our area (Glacier Park and Bob Marshall Complex) which represents the receptiveness and volatility of the forest fuels:

You can see that the moisture we got in July moderated the ERC’s for 2015 (blue line) significantly compared to the path they were on before the 4th of July. We are just returning to the levels we saw at the first of July, but are well ahead and above an average year (grey line), and will be getting back close to the max again (red line). Let’s hope we get good moisture out of the system forecasted early this week, without the lightning….