Greetings all! The latest Wildland Fire Potential Outlook was released today, and it is as expected. The continued hot and dry weather in early September will give us above normal fire activity in Northwestern Montana:
The good news, of course, is that we did receive a little precipitation in the North Fork – and that was welcome. But, we have two to three weeks of fire season left at least. Days are getting shorter, nighttime temperature and humidity recovery is significantly improving (except in the thermal belts), which really decreases fire activity.
We aren’t out of the woods yet – and we have the potential for some significant fire yet this fall, especially if we remain warm and dry through September into October.
Greetings, All!! As you can tell, fire season is upon us, as Lynn Ogle has pointed out.
Here is the latest monthly outlook for August, September and October.
The good news of course is that we benefited from a cold, wet June and the first half of July. The bad news is of course the hot, dry weather that has been parked over us for the past couple of weeks or so. That is forecasted to persist for a while, and we are forecasted to have a more active than normal fire season for the month of August:
Don’t forget the North Fork Fuels Reduction Field Trip Wednesday, June 15 beginning at Mark and Margaret Heaphy’s place, 11530 North Fork Road at 0930. While there we will talk about fuel modification around structures, and the work that has been done in the North Fork in response to our large fires.
Bring a bag lunch to enjoy at Sondreson Community Hall, while NRCS District Conservationist Sean Johnson goes over the Wedge Canyon TIP project – where grant funding is available to landowners not only within the Wedge Canyon Fire Area, but all forested landowners from Teepee Creek/Ford Work Station north to the Canadian Border. He will cover not only the project area and types of work that qualifies, but also the application process. Continue reading North Fork Fuels Reduction Field Trip, Wednesday, June 15
Greetings everyone. Here is our first Outlook that can give us a reasonable hint of what the fire season might look like. The good news is that the forecast looks like a “normal” fire season for Northwest Montana – which of course includes the North Fork.
The bad news, of course, is that the rest of Montana, especially east of the Divide, is looking at potentially being significantly above normal wildland fire potential.
The caution for us is that even with the cool spring, and increased snowpack over the past month or two, those factors are transitory. That is, if we wind up turning off hot and dry in early July, the positive effects that the cool, wet spring we had will dissipate quickly. We had that a few years ago, and meteorologists called it a “Flash Drought.” It was not forecasted that summer and caught the meteorologists by surprise. They apologized the next spring for having told us we would have a “Slow Normal” fire season…
So, we need to prepare for a reasonably active fire season, as normal. One factor of course, is that resources will be spread thin with potentially a lot of activity elsewhere in the Northern Rockies, and around the Country.
While these Outlooks are useful, there are limits to their accuracy. The July Outlook will give us a better look at the conditions going into July, and the weather systems that might affect the rest of our fire season.
Stay tuned.
Thanks to all! Remember our Fuels Field Trip on June 15, and our Firewise Day on July 13.
September 2021 Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook
Here is the Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for September, October, November. As you all are aware, we turned a corner in mid-August in the North Fork with the moisture we received. A big change that significantly slowed the fire season for us. And the good news is that we are forecast to continue to be a “normal” fire season through September, October and November. Plus, with a La Nina forecast for Montana this winter, you all need to be tuning up your snowblowers and getting your firewood laid in.
While that is good news for Northwest Montana, Oregon and Washington will continue to be busy through September, Northern California gets no relief until December. Grim.
In contrast to the July Outlook, the August Outlook projects Above Normal Wildland Fire Potential to extend through September in addition to August. The July Outlook had us returning to normal in September. Above Normal conditions will persist in October on the Eastside. Northwest Montana should return to normal in October. Here are some excerpts: Continue reading August National Wildland Fire Potential Outlook
This is as we would expect given our dry spring and spreading drought. The good news is that we in the North Fork are in a better position than most of the West. That is not much consolation since the outlook across the West is grim. Specifically for the Northern Rockies, here are some excerpts: Continue reading June 1st National Wildland Fire Potential
Well, we are almost out of the woods for Fire Season 2020 in the Northern Rockies. We have areas of dry fuel with potential in Eastern Montana, although the forecast is for normal fire potential across the Geographic Area.
Our rainfall in Northwest Montana on September 24 and 25 provided significant relief, but the warmer daytime temperatures leave us with some potential. More moisture will help a lot. Note there are other parts of the country that will continue to have active fire seasons.
This will be the last Outlook I post until Spring 2021. Feel free to access the monthly updates on your own, posted the first of each month.
Wait for a bit more before burning your piles, unless you enjoy chasing skunking fires. And when you do burn, be sure and know what the wind is going to do. Thanks, and be safe out there!
Well, there is Good News and Not as Good News in this Month’s Wildland Fire Potential Outlook!
The Good News is that Montana is now not forecasted for an “Above Normal” September as it has been in the past two Outlooks.
The “Not as Good” News is that things are critically dry across the State. Energy Release Components, an indication of the volatility of the fuels, are in the 95th to 97th percentile, which is pretty much pegging the meter.
For the most part, we have avoided the large fires associated with these seasonally dry fuel conditions. I think the lack of numerous starts from dry lightning storms factors into the equation. And, as we move into September, the potential for dry thunderstorms drops off.
However, there are numerous other ways fires can start – most of them human. Three fires started earlier this week along Highway 200 outside of Plains/Paradise where a flat tire on a trailer sparked fires with the wheel contacting the pavement throwing sparks. Unattended campfires are always a concern – even transitioning out of the summer camping season into the fall hunting season with hunter fires.
So, continue to be careful out there. If we get some of the forecasted moisture alluded to in the narrative, we’ll get out of this fire season relatively intact. More time to work on fuels projects for next fire season! Only You….
