Author: Allen Chrisman

Well, there is Good News and Not as Good News in this Month’s Wildland Fire Potential Outlook!

The Good News is that Montana is now not forecasted for an “Above Normal” September as it has been in the past two Outlooks.

The “Not as Good” News is that things are critically dry across the State. Energy Release Components, an indication of the volatility of the fuels, are in the 95th to 97th percentile, which is pretty much pegging the meter.

For the most part, we have avoided the large fires associated with these seasonally dry fuel conditions. I think the lack of numerous starts from dry lightning storms factors into the equation. And, as we move into September, the potential for dry thunderstorms drops off.

However, there are numerous other ways fires can start – most of them human. Three fires started earlier this week along Highway 200 outside of Plains/Paradise where a flat tire on a trailer sparked fires with the wheel contacting the pavement throwing sparks. Unattended campfires are always a concern – even transitioning out of the summer camping season into the fall hunting season with hunter fires.

So, continue to be careful out there. If we get some of the forecasted moisture alluded to in the narrative, we’ll get out of this fire season relatively intact. More time to work on fuels projects for next fire season! Only You….

https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf

As expected, Northwest Montana continues to be projected as above normal for fire activity through August and September. We can all be glad that the moisture we got at the end of June and the first of July pushed our fire season out from becoming active in early to mid July.

But, with the current temperatures, low overnight temperature and humidity recovery, and live fuels suffering due to the combination of those factors, we can become pretty volatile pretty quickly.

The other aspect of this Outlook indicates we will have enough moisture in the air masses pushing up from the 4 Corners area to stimulate convective activity – dry thunderstorms. So, we can wind up with a lot of new starts from lightning.

Probably not telling any of you anything you don’t know – but it is a good time to get those fire tools shaped up, tanks mounted in 4 wheelers, and watching the lightning maps.

Here is the link to the complete Wildland Fire Potential Outlook. As we have said before, these Outlooks are useful but there are no guarantees.
https://nflandowners.org/nflawp/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/August-monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf

The Current Wildland Fire Potential Outlook has been posted, and it refines the forecast for our fire season in Northwest Montana. We did see benefit from the significant moisture received over the past two weeks, so our season will be delayed until later in July. That is good news. But August and September are still forecast to be Above Normal Fire Activity for Northwest Montana.

Here is the important stuff for the Northern Rockies:

“Normal fire potential is now anticipated to continue through most of July due to the recent passage of moist, Pacific troughs and beneficial precipitation in the latter half of June and forecast to continue in a weaker version by various CPC outlooks into the middle of the month. In late July and August, Above Normal significant wildland fire potential is anticipated to develop in all the Western PSAs 01-09 and expand eastward into central and southeastern Montana, possibly as far east as western North Dakota. One reason is the predicted monsoonal lightning pattern which could be robust under a strong ridge of high pressure during that time with above average potential lightning ignitions in dry fuel beds. Above Normal potential will continue for those same areas in September with the outlooks calling for warmer and drier than average conditions.”

August and September will be busy for us. Be prepared!

Here is the link for the entire report: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf