Outlook for Wildland Fire for August/September/October

Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for August 2017
Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for August 2017

Here is the Outlook for Wildland Fire for August/September/October:  https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf

This Outlook better represents the conditions we are seeing, both up the North Fork as well in more severe burning conditions across the rest of Montana.  This is in sharp contrast to the forecast from Predictive Services we received at our IMT Spring Meetings which forecasted a “slow normal” fire season for the Northern Rockies.  I think we have exceeded the acres burned by August 1 that they forecasted for the entire season – and you all know that we have six to eight weeks of fire season left.

I just returned yesterday from a 12 day assignment as Deputy Plans Chief with Shawn Pearson’s North Idaho Type 2 Team on the Sunrise Fire outside of Superior, Montana.  Doug Turman’s Type 1 Team replaced us, because it is truly a Type 1 Fire.  Pearson’s Team had been assigned several days before I was ordered – I was one of the folks they ordered to expand the Team’s capability to manage a complex incident.

The fuels in Southwest Montana are extremely dry.  Operations did an incredible job burning out heavy fuels around structures that had been evacuated.  As I left yesterday, the Team had not lost a structure, which was incredible as well.  Our fuels in the mid and higher elevations in the Flathead are retaining more live fuel moisture, but that may not last long if the heat does not moderate.  This is very similar to the 2007 fire season where the Flathead saw large fires – Brush Creek west of Whitefish in Star Meadows, and Skyland Creek Fire in the Skyland Creek area that burned over Marias Pass through the Lewis and Clark National Forest, and onto the Blackfeet Reservation.  The North Fork dodged the bullet in 2007.  I hope we are as fortunate again.

Anyway, I’m thinking I may not have much time up the North Fork until after the season ends.  And I wouldn’t expect that until October 1 at the earliest.  We all know they can extend with nice fall weather as well.

Closure of Trail Creek Road

This is a new closure order from Rob Davies, District Ranger of the Forest Service, via Allen Chrisman on the Kootenai, as a result of the Gibraltar Ridge Fire in the Eureka area.

This closure effects travel from the North Fork over Trail Creek onto the Kootenai.  We will be posting signs today at the North Fork (junction of North Fork Road and Trail Creek Road), and at Tuchuck Trail Head.

This also affects the Pacific Northwest Trail.  We will post the order at strategic trailheads for the PNW in coordination with the Kootenai.

Gibralter Fire in Lower Graves Creek East of Eureka

I see that according to Kootenai Dispatch WildCAD, there is a new large fire (estimated 500 acres) 7 miles east of Eureka in lower Graves Creek.  It is about 20 miles due west of the North Fork Road at Whale Creek.  A Type 2 Incident Management Team has been ordered.  Rick Connell’s Western Montana IMT has been reserved, which means they will be assigned as soon as the inbriefing is set up.

I can’t forecast the fire movement from what I know, but it would appear to be unlikely that it will progress northeast up Graves Creek and come down Trail Creek.  I think it is more likely it will make runs to the east following lateral drainages.  If it came over the top, it would run into the Wedge Canyon fire scar above Hornet.  And I’m not sure how those regenerated stands would affect fire behavior.  It would be easier for an overhead team to construct fuel breaks and fire out compared to heavy timber fuels.

I attached the current Google Earth images showing the approximate fire location.

My take is that this is a serious fire that is going to cover some ground.  The North Fork needs to be alert, but it will be several operational periods before the fire is positioned to pose a direct threat to residents in the Valley.  Lincoln, Bill, feel free to correct that assessment.  Lincoln should be assigned with Connell as his Liaison Officer unless he has too much going on in Flathead County.

Keep your heads up, folks.  It looks like my Team will be up and available tomorrow.  Thanks.  Allen

If you want to keep up-to-date on this fire, check out InciWeb. And this is pretty cool. This fire has its own Facebook page.

Gibralter Fire 8.8.2017 a.m.
Gibralter Fire 8.8.2017 a.m.
Gibralter Fire Area Map 8.8.2017 a.m.
Gibralter Fire Area Map 8.8.2017 a.m.

Information about Fires

At the NFLA Business Meeting last evening, it was suggested that we publish a list of fire information sites. Here’s a list that we’ve put together. This list has also been published on the Fire Mitigation Committee page.

If you have another information site that you use, please let us know via the contact page.

An interagency fire information line has been established in order to streamline calls, share facts and serve the public during fire season. The Office of Emergency Services Information Line is 406-758-2111, and the Interagency Fire Fact Sheet can be found at: https://www.facebook.com/FlatheadOES.  Fact sheets will be updated as needed during the fire season.

DNCR Interactive Wildland Fire Map – Great summary of the fires that are going on everywhere.
http://gis.dnrc.mt.gov/apps/firemap/

Fire Imagery – Remote Sensing Applications Center – Tap on MODIS Satellite Imagery to get information about where our smoke is coming from.
https://fsapps.nwcg.gov/afm/imagery.php?op=fire&fireID=id-mt-000

WildCAD – Kalispell Interagency Dispatch Center – Dispatches from our area. It can be a little difficult to interpret, but useful.
http://www.wildcad.net/WCMT-KIC.htm

InciWeb – A national website showing the big fires under active management. This page is for Montana.
https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/state/27/

Northern Rockies Geographic Area Current Wildfire Activity – Great overview map for our area
https://gacc.nifc.gov/nrcc/predictive/intelligence/ytd_historical/firemaps/current_large_wf.htm

Active Fire Map Program – Nice map of large fires.
https://fsapps.nwcg.gov/afm/

Northern Rockies Coordination Center – More good incident information.
https://gacc.nifc.gov/nrcc/index.htm

Montana DEQ (Air Quality) – Some information about the air quality and suggestions on what to do.
http://svc.mt.gov/deq/todaysair/

July-August-September Wildfire Outlook

In Northwest Montana we are still forecasted for a “normal” season, but with normal fire season in August, it should be busy.

As Lynn probably mentioned at the NFLA Meeting Saturday, things are drying out quickly.  I was amazed at how dry the fine fuels around our cabins have gotten in just the past week without watering.  This reminds me of 2007 in the Flathead, where we had a very busy season after incredible heat in early July.  Our live fuel moistures are reasonable, but the dead fuel moistures are dropping radically (hear the crunching under your feet when you walk through the woods???)

Here is a link to the current Wildland Fire Outlook:  https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf

Stay tuned, be careful, and make sure our Firewise Day is on your calendar for July 19 (tap here to get a PDF copy).  Byron Bonney’s presentation is not to be missed!

Fire Mitigation Committee Update – June 2017

Firewise Day 2016The Fire Mitigation Committee met in May to plan its activities for the year, including its annual Firewise Day workshop.  The workshop will be held in Sondreson Hall on Wednesday, July 19, 2017 from 9:30 a.m. to noon, preceding the Summer Interlocal.

Our principal speaker this year will be Byron Bonney, who has been instrumental in working with landowners on hazardous fuels treatments in the Bitterroot Valley.  He’ll tell us about the effects of those treatments in the area burned by the Roaring Lion Fire last summer.   The fire was aptly named:  it came roaring out of a canyon and then fanned out into the valley, behavior that is also typical of many North Fork fires.  Although the Roaring Lion Fire destroyed a number of homes, most of the homes whose owners had created defensible space around them were spared.  The treatments brought fire to the ground and limited the fuels that could be ignited by flying embers.  They also improved the chance of survival for neighbors’ homes downwind.  So as we’ll hear at the workshop, the fire provided important corroboration of the value of defensible space.

We’ll also hear from Lincoln Chute, Director of Emergency Services for Flathead County and a member of our committee.  He’ll talk about the county’s pending revision of its Community Wildfire Protection Plan or CWPP.  The committee expects to update the North Fork’s fire plan in conjunction with the county’s revision.  Lots of work has been done since our last update in 2009, as maps will demonstrate.  Community input is required in the CWPP process so landowners can expect to hear more about the project this summer.

With respect to the status of our cost-share assistance grants, we basically have $10,000 left in our current grant.  We may apply for another, smaller grant.  But we also have potential access to funds from grants that cover larger areas of the county.  There’s now a fair amount of flexibility in where the monies can be spent.  Landowners who are interested in creating defensible space around their North Fork homes should contact Bill Swope at 406.250.9812 or bhswope@gmail.com.  Mason Richwine, who has worked with many North Fork landowners over the last 10+years, has retired.

Finally, the June 1 Wildland Fire Potential is posted on the NFLA website.  The Northern Rockies’ outlook is for a slower than normal fire season in June and July, moving to normal in August and September.  But we can’t be complacent:  hot, dry, windy days cure out fine fuels, making them more combustible.  Landowners should be cautious about any burning, and do so only with a permit.   Now is also a good time to clean up accumulated flammable debris around our homes, so it doesn’t provide a fuel bed for embers.

National Outlook for Wildland Fire Potential – June 1

The following information was provided by Allen Chrisman…

Here is the June 1 National Outlook for Wildland Fire Potential. It is forecasting a slower than normal fire season for the Northern Rockies for June and July, moving to a “normal” fire season in August and September. That is the good news. Locally, the hot dry weather we have had recently makes things a bit more combustible.

Bottom line, even if we are still in the active burning period (by permit, of course), let’s be careful out there. I passed up burning last week because it appeared that things would carry just too well with the hot dry weather.

Mark your calendars for the North Fork’s 2017 Firewise Day, which will be held the morning of July 19, preceding the Summer Interlocal. For more information, see “Fire Mitigation Committee Report, Late Winter 2017” by Molly.

May Wildland Fire Outlook is now available

The summary says… By mid-late July, the western fire season will begin to progress north into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. While a normal transition into fire season is expected in the lower elevations, a delayed entrance is possible in the higher elevations as both regions enter their fire seasons having seen abundant winter and spring precipitation and snowpack accumulation.

Fire Mitigation Committee Report, Late Winter 2017

The Fire Mitigation Committee is planning for the North Fork’s 2017 Firewise Day, which probably will be held the morning of July 19, preceding the Summer Interlocal. Byron Bonney will be our featured speaker.  He has been instrumental in working with landowners on hazardous fuels treatments in the Bitterroot. We expect him to tell us about the effects of those treatments in the area burned by the Roaring Lion Fire last summer. Although many homes were destroyed in the fire, almost all of the homes whose owners had created defensible space around them were spared. The treatments brought fire to the ground and limited the fuels that could be ignited by flying embers. They also improved the chance of survival for neighbors’ homes downwind. So as you’ll hear at the workshop, the fire provided important corroboration of the value of defensible space.

We have at least $10,000 left in our 4th hazardous fuels grant, with about 55 acres already treated and 35 in process. So far, landowners and community members have provided over $80,000 in cash match and in-kind labor. Special thanks goes to Flathead County, which donated almost $8000 in equipment and labor for chipping the slash that resulted from our Trail Creek Project. The Fire Mitigation Committee probably will apply for a 5th grant if it has the opportunity.

The Flathead Economic Policy Center administers the grants and provides landowners and the committee with invaluable technical assistance. We’ve just learned that our friend Mason Richwine, a FEPC forester who has worked with many North Fork landowners, is retiring in order to concentrate on hunting and fishing. We wish him success.  Bill Swope will continue to work with us.

Flathead County is launching another revision of its Community Wildfire Protection Plan. The Fire Mitigation Committee expects to update its North Fork Wildfire Mitigation and Planning Report in conjunction with the county’s revision. We’ll need community input in the process. We’ll also need to update maps of the significant public and private work that’s been done on the North Fork since the fires of 2003.

Finally, the DNRC is sponsoring a multi-media presentation on the Era of Mega-Fires in Kalispell this Spring. The presentation will be held on Tuesday April 25 from 6 – 8 p.m. at Flathead Valley Community College, Arts & Technology Room 139.  We understand that the program is compelling.

Red Whale Prescribed Fire Information – Units 7 And 8

Andy Huntsberger, Fire Management Officer for the Forest Service, wrote with the following information… We plan on doing some Prescribed Fire implementation in the North Fork of the Flathead on 9/28 and 9/29/2016. Specifically Red Whale Units 7 (270 Acres) & Unit 8 (308 Acres) located directly west of Polebridge, MT. We plan on hand igniting the ridges and potentially utilizing Helicopter PSD ignition to burn the lower portions of the units.

Click here for an interactive map of the planned areas.

Please see the attached maps for the specific locations and area closure.

unit_7_8 rw-areaclosure