Fire Mitigation Committee 2018 Late Winter Update

Mark Your Calendars! The Fire Mitigation Committee is planning for the North Fork’s 2018 Firewise Day, which will be held the morning of July 18 preceding the Summer Interlocal. The North Fork has been recognized as a Firewise Community since 2006. Come join our Celebration! Byron Bonney will be our featured speaker again. This year he will tell us about the effects of fuels treatments in the area burned by the 2017 Lolo Peak Fire south of Missoula, as well as some effects from the Sunrise Fire near Superior. Byron’s presentation last year focused on the Roaring Lion Fire, and the effects of fuel treatments on fire behavior. The treatments brought fire to the ground and limited the fuels that could be ignited by flying embers. They also improved the chance of survival for neighbors’ homes downwind. We are looking forward to Byron’s report on what he observed at the Lolo Peak and Sunrise Fires, and a look back at some of the fuel treatment “lessons learned” from the Roaring Lion Fire. You can download a copy of the agenda by tapping here.

While funds in our 4th Hazardous Fuels Grant are obligated, a new grant covering the North half of Flathead County has funds available that can be used in the North Fork. The Flathead Economic Policy Center (FEPC) administers the grants and provides landowners and the committee with invaluable technical assistance. Since taking over administration of Hazardous Fuels Grants in the North Fork in 2012 from the Northwest Montana RC&D, FEPC has administered over $153,000 in grants in the North Fork and treated 241 acres with landowner contributions totaling $129,000.

With the retirement of our friend Mason Richwine, a FEPC forester who has worked with many North Fork landowners, Tony Willits will be taking over administration of projects in the North Fork. We look forward to working with Tony, who brings a wealth of forestry and fire experience to the position as did Mason. Bill Swope will continue to work with us, and can be reached at 406-250-9812 or at bhswope@gmail.com.

Flathead County is continuing to work on revision of its Community Wildfire Protection Plan. The Fire Mitigation Committee expects to update its North Fork Wildfire Mitigation and Planning Report in conjunction with the county’s revision. We’ll need community input in the process. We’ll also need to update maps of the significant public and private work that’s been done on the North Fork since the fires of 2003.

June 2018 National Wildland Fire Outlook

There is essentially no change from the May Outlook for Northwest Montana.  I do see some indication that we might not have an extended season into October which would be good.  On the other hand, the monsoonal moisture that will be pushing up into the Yellowstone country could very well increase our dry lightning levels without bringing the moisture.  That could seriously affect us given hot and dry conditions.

We’ll look forward to the July issuance, but count on a very hot and dry July and August into September with a higher than normal wildfire activity level.  Get gutters cleaned out, lawns irrigated and mowed, and cleanup completed.

Here is the link to the June National Wildland Fire Outlook:  https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf

Firewise Date is Wednesday, July 18th

Here is a note from Allen Chrisman, NFLA’s co-chair for the Fire Mitigation Committee… Here is the link to the June National Wildland Fire Outlook:

https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf

There is essentially no change from the May Outlook for Northwest Montana.  I do see some indication that we might not have an extended season into October which would be good.  On the other hand, the monsoonal moisture that will be pushing up into the Yellowstone country could very well increase our dry lightning levels without bringing the moisture.  That could seriously affect us given hot and dry conditions.

We’ll look forward to the July issuance, but count on a very hot and dry July and August into September with a higher than normal wildfire activity level.  Get gutters cleaned out, lawns irrigated and mowed, and cleanup completed.

Fire Season Outlook May-June-July

Well, I had hoped that we would get a better forecast for the fire season.  This doesn’t look good.

2018 Fire Outlook - June

2018 Fire Outlook - July

2018 Fire Outlook - August

Northern Rockies: Normal Significant Wildland Fire Potential is expected for the Northern Rockies in May and June. For July and August, Above Normal Significant Wildland Fire Potential is expected from central Montana west through the Idaho Panhandle, excluding the Beaverhead Deer Lodge National forest. In this and other, eastern locations Normal Significant Wildland Fire Potential is expected.

With near average temperatures and precipitation expected in May and June, Normal Significant Wildland Fire Potential is anticipated across the region as fuels will still be transitioning to drier levels, especially at higher elevations west of the Continental Divide. In early July, higher elevations may still be relatively moist due to the enhanced snowpack in the western areas. By the last half of July, however, heavy cured fine fuel loading and drier larger fuels are expected to elevate potential to “above-normal” in the Idaho and western/central Montana areas since the temperature and precipitation outlooks favor warmer and drier conditions. Above Normal potential with warmer and drier than average conditions will continue in August in those locations depicted on the maps. Southwestern Montana, Yellowstone National Park, and the Absaroka-Beartooth mountains/plateau, southwest Montana will remain near normal based on anticipated monsoonal moisture bringing adequate precipitation to these areas through the entire outlook period.

While the forecast for lightning is not included in this Outlook, the reference to monsoonal moisture moving into SW Montana implies that those air masses will be present in the Northern Rockies.  Even if the air masses dry out before hitting Northwest Montana, the residual moisture can lead to significant convection and lightning.  We can be hot and dry, but if we don’t get starts we can be OK.  If we get a lot of dry lightning under hot dry conditions, it will be very challenging.

We haven’t had back to back extreme fire seasons in the Northern Rockies in my experience.  However, we might be turning a corner on that this year.  Keep your fingers crossed and get your fuels work done and be squared away for initial attack.  Could be a bad one.

Download the full report from here. https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf

Wildfire Risk Assessment Request

2017 was a record year for Wildland Fire in Montana with some 1.4 million acres burned. Fortunately, the North Fork escaped large fires. However, with our long history of large fires in 1988, 2001 and 2003, it is only a matter of time before we see large fire return to the North Fork. Many North Fork residents have taken advantage of the free Wildland Fire Risk Assessments provided by both the Flathead Economic Policy Center (FEPC) and Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. If you are interested in a free Assessment, fill out the attached form and return it to the FEPC. Grant money is available to assist landowners with hazardous fuels projects if they are interested.

February 1, 2018 National Wildland Fire Potential Outlook

February 2018 National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook

We are in good shape being out of season with reasonable moisture – snowpack is around 123% of normal for the Flathead.  I was just in Albuquerque last week, and they are in continued drought with their ski area unable to open because they have more bare ground than they do snow cover.  Grim.  Jackson Wyoming just cancelled a Skijoring event due to lack of snow as well.

I’ll keep you posted as things change going into the spring and continue into the fire season.  Fire season will be what it is, of course, but it is interesting to me to see how other parts of the country are being set up for active fire season.  That obviously affects availability of resources nationally when we do get active.
Be thankful we have as much snow as we  do.  It can’t hurt.

Here is the link to the February 1 National Wildland Fire Potential Outlook that covers February, March and April:

https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf

Thanks!  Allen

National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy September Newsletter

An Assessment of Wildfire Transmission and its Implications for Risk Governance
An Assessment of Wildfire Transmission and its Implications for Risk Governance

We thought that North Forkers would be interested in reading the Western Region National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy September Newsletter. It begins…

This has been a particularly tough season for stakeholders in the West. Cohesive Strategy’s Western Region and its partners are leading the charge to facilitate identification and implementation of collaborative, cross-boundary solutions to the complex, landscape-level issues we are facing today. The Cohesive Strategy is the right framework from which to continue to build social, political and scientific support to address these issues. Change will not occur overnight but together we can change the trajectory that can be plainly observed in recent fire seasons.

In this issue:

  • Collaborative Landscape Planning and Fuels Reduction Pays Off
  • “Why I Burned My Property and How I Shot It”
  • Public – Private Partnerships Paying Off During Montana Fires
  • An Assessment of Wildfire Transmission and its Implications for Risk Governance
  • Teaching Fire with Fire
  • Increases in Wildfire-Caused Erosion Can Impact Water Supply and Quality
  • What the Joint Fire Science Program Can Do for You
  • Upcoming Learning Opportunities

Tap here to read the full newsletter.

September Wildland Fire Outlook

Here is the link to the September/October/November Wildland Fire Outlook: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf

For September in the Northern Rockies: Above Normal significant large fire potential is expected in all areas except Yellowstone National Park and eastern North Dakota in September where Normal Potential is expected.

In October Above Normal significant large fire potential will continue across the southern Idaho Panhandle and across most of Montana, except the Kootenai Region and Southwest Montana. Western North Dakota will also experience elevated potential in October as well.

This is grim news. While we will see diminished potential for lightning starts as the season progresses, the relief we need in terms of a season-ending moisture event looks elusive. And with the number of new starts across the state during the past few days, there is a lot of fire on the landscape that will not go out on its own. In addition we don’t have enough overhead teams/crews/engines/aircraft to staff the fires that are active now.

This is going to be a very tough September and October for Montana. I’m hoping that escaped hunter fires don’t add significantly to the fire situation….

Let’s be careful out there.

Firewise Day 2017

Firewise Day 2017Following is a report from co-chairs Molly Shepherd and Allen Chrisman…

The NFLA’s Fire Mitigation Committee sponsored its annual Firewise Day workshop on July 19, 2017, immediately preceding the Summer Interlocal meeting.  About 55 people attended.  The program was compelling and well-received by attendees.

Our principal speaker was Byron Bonney, who had a long and distinguished career with the Forest Service.  He now works as a community forester with the Bitterroot Resource Conservation and Development Council, assisting landowners in designing and implementing fuels treatments.  Those treatments were put to the test during the dangerous Roaring Lion Fire in the summer of 2016.

Mr. Bonney reminded attendees of the three purposes of the National Cohesive Wildland Fire Strategy:

  • To create a resilient landscape,
  • To build fire-resistant communities, and
  • To assure a safe and effective wildfire response.

Secondary goals are to increase forest health and to reduce insects and disease.

Since 2000, wildfire has consumed enormous resources in the United States, including both the costs of suppression and damage/loss to lives and property.  Three factors affect fire behavior:  fuels, weather and topography.  The only factor we can do anything about is fuels.  The objective is to get fire to the ground instead of spreading through the crowns so that it can be better managed, increasing opportunities to divert it around structures.

When the Roaring Lion Fire started in late July 2016, fuels work had been done on twenty of the properties within what would become the fire perimeter.  Fifteen of the primary structures within the thinned areas survived.  Many of the homes that burned were adjacent to national forest designated roadless areas, choked with fuels.  Fire generally went to the ground when it hit the thinned areas, sparing structures that otherwise might have been lost.

Mr. Bonney asked us whether we had prepared our homes and our properties for a devastating wildfire.  He emphasized the potential consequences of lack of preparedness.  For example, a fire crew may refuse to enter a property if a landowner has not done his or her part to reduce risks.  Fuels mitigation around a home and the road accessing the property is particularly important, providing a safe area for wildland and structure firefighters to work and adequate ingress and egress.

Removing flammables from your decks and immediately adjacent to the structure that can be ignited by a shower of embers is critical.  In addition, nooks and crannies, vents, and ridge caps should be sealed or screened to prevent embers from landing and igniting the structure.  Landowners must be proactive, not reactive, and must understand the consequences of their decisions.

Lincoln Chute, Fire Service Area Management Chief, and Ali Evans of the DNRC spoke about the status of revisions of Flathead County’s Community Wildfire Protection Plan.  They hope to have a draft of the revised plan later this year.  The North Fork has its own plan appended to the county’s plan.  The Fire Mitigation Committee expects to update the North Fork plan in conjunction with the revisions.  Community participation is required in the process.

Lincoln also addressed the current Evacuation process – residents can expect to receive a Warning during the first contact with the Sheriff’s Office, and then an ordered Evacuation on the second contact if time allows.  Residents are expected to be aware of the hazards of wildland fire, and when they see smoke, they need to begin implementing their preparations for evacuation without notice from the Sheriff’s Office.  If the risk is imminent, residents need to remove themselves and their most critical possessions to a safe area without waiting for a formal evacuation notice.

The Blankenship Fire Department is designated as the primary responding Department in the Fire Service Area for the North Fork.  They will respond to provide structure protection in the North Fork Valley.  Chief Ed Burlingame described the resources that can be deployed to protect our homes.  In reality, there are not enough resources available to defend multiple structures in a short time frame.  Response times up the North Fork are significant as well.

Keith VanBroeke, who worked with the Fire Mitigation Committee in its early days, is now the Deputy Forest Fire Management Officer for the Flathead Forest.  He was the Operations Assistant Fire Management Officer for Hungry Horse/Glacier View Ranger District, and is very familiar with the North Fork.  He described the staffing the Forest has, bringing in initial attack resources from other Geographic Areas to bolster their I/A capability.

The current Operations AFMO for HH/GV is Ryan Butler.  He gave us an overview of the current burning conditions.  He commented that as of July 19, we’re ahead of schedule in fuels flammability and fire potential.  He likened conditions at that time to peak dryness in August.  The Forest Service is in an aggressive initial attack mode, as seen in its response to the recent fire up Moose Creek.

Firewise Day 2017

Finally, Bill Swope of the Flathead Economic Policy Council summarized hazardous fuels grant activity on the North Fork.  He called the Trail Creek ingress/egress project a “big success.”  Flathead County assisted in the project by chipping the resultant slash.  The North Fork still has a small amount of money available in its fourth grant.  Moreover, a recent $300,000 grant that was awarded to the northern end of Flathead County may be used for treatments on the North Fork.

As ever, the Fire Mitigation Committee appreciates the continuing support and collaboration of agencies with jurisdiction on the North Fork, including the participation of agency personnel in our Firewise Day workshop.