While we have appreciated the moisture we received lately, we are still behind in overall precipitation for the year. And while there is probability of showers in the forecast, I’m thinking things are going to dry out – and probably quickly by late July. So, we will transition into an active fire season certainly by the end of July. Still time to prepare – I know I have to get our sprinkler system set up!
Northwestern Montana (including the Flathead) is forecasted for above normal large fire potential starting in mid-July and continuing through August into at least mid-September.
So, it has the potential to be a busy fire season in the North Fork. Click on the link below for the report.
Not much of a surprise here. As I was discussing with Lynn Ogle last week, we haven’t had a “season-ending” event, but the door is slowly closing on the fire season in the North Fork. Note the forecast for warmer temperatures and below average snowpack for the Northern Rockies over the winter.
So, watch out for your burning conditions – we could still have warm, windy days where fires could escape in light flashy fuels. Always do your test fire (with water handy) to see how it carries in the fuels surrounding your burn piles. That will tell you a lot.
Thanks to all of you. Have a great burning season, and a good winter! Allen
Following is an article that was sent by our good North Fork neighbor, Karina Pettey…
Whale Butte fire | photo by Amy Secrest
Saturday, August 11, 2018: Lightning punctuated local radio chatter as my neighbors tried to pinpoint strikes from the predicted dry storm. Using lightning app technology and line of sight, they worked to identify potential areas to watch for smoke. For now, darkness shrouded the forest as duff incubated the embers.
Sunday morning, the smell of fresh smoke greeted us but we shrugged it off. Our neighbor smelled it as well and called it in. Fire dispatch argued, he insisted. Three hours later, there was official confirmation of a fire on Whale Butte and a Type III team rolled in to check it out. A little fire located up the North Fork, one of several started by the same storm, Whale Butte was low priority and we knew it.
Preparing for fire begins well before lightning strikes. The North Fork Landowners Association (NFLA) collaborates with government agencies on multiple fronts including fire mitigation and fire safety. Community organizations and agencies with responsibilities on the North Fork hold joint public meetings twice a year. It’s an opportunity to address issues, network, and build relationships. North Forkers don’t mince words and our government partners know it! When the Type 1 Team was assigned, the Forest Service made it clear that community relationships were a Value at Risk. An angry North Fork is the stuff of local legend. After all, we might quit bringing dessert to potlucks!
Fire Meeting at the Hall | photo by Suzanne Daniel
There is good news in the September/October/November National Wildland Fire Outlook that resonates with what we have seen in the North Fork. They accurately captured the season-slowing event we had on August 27 where we had widespread precip of 0.20” to 0.50” and snow on the mountains. As you all saw, that coupled with seasonal trend to shorter burning period, cooler temperatures especially overnight, and higher relative humidity recovery overnight has significantly changed fire behavior, even though we saw premature curing of grasses and shrubs (the early color change was based more on drought than photo period in my mind).
We have returned to “Normal” fire behavior forecast for Northwestern Montana for the forecast period. “The latest climate outlooks forecast the entire region to have above average temperatures and near-average precipitation for the period from September through November.” It appears that there may be a higher fire risk in Eastern Montana, but for us a return to Normal is very good. So, while it would be nice for us to see a forecast for a season-ending event in the next few weeks, in reality I think we are going to slide gradually out of fire season. I would be surprised if we see any return to significant fire indices in the Flathead. That doesn’t preclude some moderately warm temperatures and strong winds from a passing dry cold front that would cause any active fire to get up and run for a few hours with available fuels. I don’t believe we have that potential in either Whale Butte or Coal Ridge, but a new start in heavy, dry fuels could be a problem, but I think that would be a relatively uncommon event.
All in all, a good forecast for us. And we might have some good fall weather for outdoor work and burning, once we get out of fire season!
Great turnout for the Fire Training at the Hall last Thursday with some 25 people in attendance!
Gary Mahugh did an excellent job going over some of the fundamentals. Thanks to Dick Leigh for being the energy behind this. And thanks to Janet Leigh for the potluck pulled pork main dish!
We’ll be thinking about hosting a similar session next June, and include it on the calendar if there is interest.
The August 1st National Wildfire Outlook Potential is very consistent with what has been forecasted before and what we are seeing up the North Fork. Bottom line for us is that we will see an above average August and September in terms of fire activity. No real relief during that period, however the forecast is confident that the season will close out in late September/early October, which is a relief.
We received just a little bump of moisture a week ago – but all that did was extend the live fuel moistures for a week or so. We’ll be curing out fast without additional precip, and at some point the minor amounts (less than a quarter of an inch) will not do much at all. I was on the Kootenai Forest this week, and we need to feel fortunate in the North Fork that we have relatively moist fuels. They don’t, and the number of fires they are staffing reflects that.
Stay watchful – water what you can, keep your grass mowed and trimmed, and watch for smoke.
2018 North Fork Firewise Day | photo by Allen Chrisman
The NFLA’s Fire Mitigation Committee sponsored its annual Firewise Day workshop on July 18, 2018, preceding the Summer Interlocal meeting. About 45 people attended the program. For more information and excellent recommendations on how to prepare for a wildland fire, tap here to read a summary co-authored by Molly Shepherd and Allen Chrisman.
The summary mentions the draft Strategic Planning Section of the 2018 North Fork Flathead Wildfire Mitigation and Planning Report. If you would like to download that, then tap here. Comments are welcome on the draft Strategic Planning Section – please submit them to Allen Chrisman at achrisman52@gmail.com.
Allen Chrisman has made a copy of the PowerPoint presentation available for everyone, especially folks who weren’t able to attend. You can download the file by tapping here. Please be warned. The file is over 50MB. You might want to wait until you get on a computer that has unlimited download!
Thank you Molly Shepherd and Allen Chrisman (co-chairs) for all of your hard work putting this together.
The July/August/September Outlook is posted. The bottom line is that it could be worse. They are forecasting a above normal July for North Idaho and the Kootenai west of us. I know our precip the last two weeks has made a difference, but it won’t last if we get another flash drought.
All in all, the forecast has seemed to moderate from the June forecast. Still, August and September will be Above Normal for us – and will last until late in September or early October. The monsoonal moisture is forecasted to push up into Southwestern Montana, which still means we may get dry lightning out on the edge of those air masses.
Come join neighbors and friends at Sondreson Hall on Thursday, July 12th at 9:30AM to learn how to protect your North Fork home. Watch fascinating videos and power point presentation by Stoltz Lumber’s Mark Boardman on thinning the forest around a home, and making open spaces for wildlife. Then travel to the Ulrichsen property, and see the results! 1 hr presentation, followed by a field trip of approximately 2 hrs. Mark Boardman also said we could get a tour of the Rittenburg property. This is the old Nature Conservancy property. Bring your own snack and drink. Kevin Ulrichsen, host
