Wildland Fire Potential Outlook – issued June 1, 2020

Here is the weblink for the current outlook:
https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf

As I said, the Outlooks issued June 1 and July 1 give us a much better picture of how the fire season might shape up.  And, it is not looking good for Northwestern Montana.  We are forecast to have a more active than normal fire season in July, August and September.

Here is an excerpt from the write-up for the Northern Rockies (our Geographic Area including North Idaho, all of Montana, and bits of North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming):

In the western areas, higher than average soil moistures from recent precipitation, and within the remaining snowpack, will provide healthy live fuels growth and limit any significant areas of dry fuels in June in the middle and higher elevations. This will maintain normal fire potential in June. Considering that the Climate Prediction Center outlooks are indicating increasingly drier and warmer than average conditions during the core fire season months, Above Normal significant large fire potential is anticipated from July through August and will continue into September for PSAs 01-09. Although the likelihood is minimal, the potential of a La Niña ENSO pattern developing in late summer or early autumn could enhance the fire potential or extend the duration of the fire season.  (Note:  The North Fork falls within PSA 7 which includes Glacier National Park and the Bob Marshall Wilderness Complex.  The North Fork, being on the west edge of PSA 7, is sometimes more similar to PSA 2 which includes the Kootenai National Forest and Eureka and can be drier.)  

In addition, the monsoonal moisture forecast for the Southwest will push up into our area – and will likely increase the scope and scale of dry lightning storms in July and August.  We might be looking at a fire season similar to 2003, 2007, and 2017.  We have to hope that the North Fork will be more similar to 2017 than 2003.  Cross your fingers and be prepared.  Again, these forecasts are useful but are often not incredibly accurate.  It can either be better or worse than forecast.  And as in 2017, a lot comes down to how many starts we have (both lightning and human-caused) and what weather conditions exist at the time (wind especially) and the fuel bed it starts in and resistance to control.

Thanks, Allen

Wernick’s Garden Sale, Wednesday, June 3

Almost forgot to remind everyone about the Market at Wernick’s this Wednesday, June 3, at Noon.

Jerry’s email said: We will have plenty of geraniums and a limited amount of salad greens for sale. Curtis will have his bread also. We still have a few vegetable starts to give away along with two different kinds of seed potatoes.  If anyone has some rhubarb or other items to sell or give away please bring them to the Market. We look forward to seeing everyone again.

Glad to hear that he has more geraniums as mine really got hammered in the storm the other night.

Bring a mask if you are comfortable wearing one, and there’s a lot of room for social distancing.  Hope you can join us Wednesday!

Latest bear update from Tim Manley

Bear Travel Map - May 28-30Here’s the latest North Fork bear information from Tim Manley, Grizzly Bear Management Specialist for Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks. It was posted to Facebook on Sunday, May 31…

The subadult male I released at the border went immediately west to Fortine. He got into garbage and bird feeders. He was recaptured and killed.

The two females I released in Whale Creek.. also went west to the Fortine, Trego, and Stryker areas. They are hanging around a few residences and getting bird feeders and maybe garbage. No trapping effort for them right now.

The adult male that was from Helmville and released in Coal Creek is now over southeast of Babb outside of Glacier Park. He was photographed near Trail Creek following the scraggly female. He then went into BC northeast of Starvation Peak. He was photographed at a rub tree with a remote camera by BC grizzly bear researchers. That was on May 28th. In the last two days he traveled 48 miles… into Alberta, east of Waterton Lake and then south and was last known to be on the Blackfeet Reservation southeast of Babb.

I attached a map so you can see his travels from May 28th to May 30th.

They rarely stay where we release them…

Bear update from Tim Manley

Momma grizzly and her cubsHere’s the latest North Fork bear information from Tim Manley, Grizzly Bear Management Specialist for Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks. It was posted to Facebook on Friday, May 22…

Good morning, I see there have been quite a few posts about bears on this page and other pages. I thought I would give a quick update on what I know.

The 2 female yearlings I released at Logging Cr on 4/27 were not collared. Regi got a remote camera photo of a yrlg in that area in mid May.

The 3 subadults I released on May 8th at Whale Cr and the border, are all over near Fortine and Trego.

The adult male from Helmville that was released in Coal Cr on May 8th has traveled a lot. Coal to Big to McGinnis to Apgar Range to Trout Lk to Dutch to Bowman Cr to Long Bow to Kintla Cr to Border Station to Trail Cr. I think he might be the one breeding the scraggly looking female that Dick Leigh photographed. UPDATE… the breeding pair Dick posted was from a few years ago.

The scraggly looking female had two 2-year olds that she had kicked off. She is not collared and has been seen a lot around Trail Cr and Tepee. Very distinctive.

Oattie is radio collared and just came south of the border. He has been seen and photographed around Trail Cr. We are going to try and trigger his collar to drop off… hopefully in Ogles yard.

There is an uncollared light colored female with two 2-year olds that has been seen and photographed in the Trail to Whale Cr areas. I think this could be the bear we called Betsy. Just a hunch.

There is a single uncollared bear that was seen around the Polebridge Bench for a while. I thought it was maybe Monica, until I got a report of a female grizzly with 3 small cubs in the Cyclone area. That is where Monica has denned in the past. She is not collared and I expected her to have cubs this year.

As part of the population trend monitoring program there are the following collared bears in the NFK.

A female with a 3 yr old that was still with her in Coal Cr.
A female with two 2-year olds in Big Cr.
A female with 3 new cubs in Hallowat.
A female with two yearlings in Dutch Cr

Again, sorry for the long post. I appreciate all the texts and photos that are posted and sent to me.
Have a good weekend!
Tim

Latest bear update from Tim Manley

Momma grizzly and her cubsHere’s the latest North Fork bear information from Tim Manley, Grizzly Bear Management Specialist for Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks. It was posted to Facebook on Saturday, May 9 at about 7am…

Bear update… good morning. Sorry for the long post… I just wanted to provide an update on bears. We will put out a press release but that might take several days.

Two days ago we captured three 3-year old grizzly bears along the NW edge of Swan Lk. This spring they had been bouncing around between Ferndale and Woods Bay. Our first reports were from last year when they were eating grass in yards. They were also in the fruit orchards and were seen at Yellow Bay and Finley Point along Flathead Lake.

A couple of weeks ago we got reports of them getting into unsecured garbage at Woods Bay. They also got bird seed and hummingbird feeders on porches. After several days of trapping we captured them.

My thought was to release them up Spotted Bear River. Due to snow on the roads we weren’t able to go down the reservoir or get to a release site up the Middle Fork.

After consulting with the FS and USFWS we decided to release them in the North Fork. Yesterday we released the two females (173 lbs and 222 lbs) in the Whale Cr drainage. We released the male (241 lbs) at the BC border. All three bears are wearing GPS collars. They haven’t been aggressive at all but definitely are used to being near residences. If they show up at your place, make them leave by safely yelling, banging pots and pans or any of the other approved methods that was in the recent NFLA newsletter.

Also yesterday, in the Blackfoot Valley, Wildlife Services captured two subadult male grizzly bears at a site where a calf had been killed. The first bear was released in Glacier Park at Logan Creek. The second male was released in Coal Cr up the North Fork last night by Jamie Jonkel with MT FWP out of Missoula. Both bears are also wearing GPS collars.

Snow conditions have really reduced our ability to access other relocation sites.

After I got back to the valley, the FS contacted me about a grizzly bear that had fed on and buried a deer carcass in the Big Cr Campground. I was able to contact Jonkel and he picked up the remains of the deer. The decision was made to have people move out of the campground for the weekend and close the gate. The bear will have a couple of nights to return and realize the deer carcass is gone and then move on.

The bear (Oattie) that used to spend time in the field south of Polebridge the last few years is currently 10 miles north of the border.

Lastly, I have not had any more recent reports of the single grizzly that had been observed on the Polebridge Bench.

I didn’t want to wait for the press release to notify you of our activities. Feel free to contact me if you have any questions.

Here’s a video of the male being released at the border: https://www.facebook.com/tim.manley.319/videos/10221922988047890/

[Update on May 11] Just a quick update. I won’t be updating all the bears movements but I wanted to let you know generally where they are since being released. The subadult male we released at the border is now near Review Mountain. The two females we released in Whale Cr are near Center Mtn. and are still together. The male that Jonkel released in Coal Creek is now in Big Creek. Oattie is now 12 miles north in BC.

Tim

An update from the North Fork Patrol

Here’s the latest activity report from the North Fork Patrol, courtesy of Mark Heaphy . . .

All 126 properties were checked at least once and 618 miles were logged.

There were a few places that had downed trees, dented vent stacks, unlocked doors and a damaged screen (due to a bear). All owners were notified.

Expanded touring & guiding on the North Fork: summary of routes, maps, dates and ‘service days’

Flathead National Forest

For those of you interested in more information about the Forest Service special use permits being considered for touring and guiding in the North Fork, Rob Davies passed along a very useful “summary of the routes, maps, dates, and service days that folks asked about at the meeting last Tuesday night.“ (Note that Rob must be working some long hours. I got his email a little after 930pm yesterday evening.)

Read the document here (PDF format)

Forest Service wants to allow expanded touring & guiding on the North Fork

Flathead National Forest

The Flathead National Forest is seeking public comment on a number of “recreation events and services,” several of which would occur on the North Fork. Only a couple of major requests significantly affect the portion of the North Fork north of Big Creek.

The Hungry Horse News has a good write-up on the situation. The items most relevant to the North Fork are quoted below. [Clarifying comments are in brackets.]

“Whitefish Shuttle is seeking a permit to provide guided day-use van tours, biking, and hiking on Forest Service system open roads and trails in the North Fork area of the Hungry Horse-Glacier View Ranger District and west of Highway 93 on the Tally Lake Ranger District. The permit would allow for shuttle services and guided van tours, biking, and hiking and between June 1 and Oct. 31 on various system roads and trails including Forest Service Roads 115 [Red Meadow Rd], 376 [Hay Creek Rd], 909 [road from Hay Creek Rd past Cyclone LO trailhead to Coal Creek Rd], 317 [Coal Creek Rd], 316, 315, 5207 [these last three are the route to Moose Lake, starting at the Big Creek Rd turnoff from the North Fork Rd] and Forest Trails 40 [trail to Cyclone LO] and 266 [Demers Ridge Trail – likely the trailhead near the Camas Road intersection that accesses the ‘quad burn’ trail up Glacier View Mountain].”

“Northwest Adventure Sports is requesting a permit to provide guided ATV tours on “various” open motorized system roads on the Tally Lake and Hungry Horse-Glacier View Ranger Districts. Roads currently requested include Forest Roads 9790, 1658, 316 [Big Creek Rd], 115 [Red Meadow Rd]. The permit would allow for guided trips from June 1 until Oct. 31.”

Also note the following other item of interest:

“Spotted Dog Cycles out of Missoula is seeking a permit to run a “bike packing” tour for one week that would stop in the Red Meadow area one night and then drop down into Polebridge. Owner Joe Riemensnider said the entire tour, which will last six days in July, will cover about 150 miles, but only two are actually in the North Fork.”

The deadline for comments is May 1, although this may be extended. Please read the full official announcement document for details on how to submit comments for the various projects.

Read more at the Hungry Horse News . . .

Read the official Forest Service announcement here . . .

North Forkers prepare to “shelter in place”

COVID-19 Symptoms InfographicCOVID-19 is now considered a global pandemic with cases rising exponentially around the world. This disease can cause pneumonia and death and there is no vaccine against it and no cure. People over 60 are most at risk. There are probably many more infected with the virus in the U.S. than has been reported due to the lack of testing across the country.

In Montana, as in many states in the country, schools are closed and events have been cancelled in an attempt to slow the spread of the virus and avoid overwhelming our hospitals which is happening in Italy right now.

The North Fork is a good place to isolate oneself and many North Forkers have prepared to “shelter in place” for the duration of the threat. However, as North Forkers continue to travel and make trips to town, the chances increase that the virus will find its way to the North Fork. Please exercise precaution when returning to the North Fork and delay getting together with friends and neighbors until you are certain you haven’t brought home a nasty souvenir.

North Forkers who have gone to town have reported empty grocery shelves and a long line at Costco as people stock up.

Below is the latest notice from Governor Bullock regarding the coronavirus.

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Message from Governor Bullock:

This week, I announced a set of directives and guidance to slow the spread of COVID-19 and protect vulnerable Montanans, including closing our public K-12 schools, adhering to social distancing, and limiting visitation at nursing home facilities.

I have directed Montana’s public K-12 schools to close starting March 16 until March 27. During this time, schools will engage in planning to provide arrangements to provide free meals to students who need them, pursuant to a waiver obtained from the United States Department of Agriculture, and to provide for all other matters and services that students need in the event of future or ongoing closure.

I recognize that our schools often serve as a lifeline for families and that this decision is going to have disruption on Montanans over the coming weeks. I’m committed to working with schools, communities and public health to minimize the impact. I encourage businesses to do everything they can to support families as well.

I am strongly recommending that the public limits all gatherings, especially no more than 50 people, in every community across the state. I am also recommending that individuals over the age of 60 or who are immunocompromised or with chronic health conditions do not participate in gatherings of more than 20 people. I also recommend that parents should avoid, if possible, placing children for childcare with grandparents or individuals over the age of 60 or immunocompromised persons.

I have suspended visitation in Montana’s nursing homes except for certain compassionate care situations. People who meet the exception for visitation will undergo a screening to determine whether they have traveled in the last two weeks, are residing where community spread is occurring, or if they have symptoms consistent with COVID-19.

As governor, it is my top priority to protect the health and safety of Montanans, particularly our most vulnerable, at a time when we face the potential for extraordinary health risks from coronavirus in our state. Social distancing is one of the most important primary protective measures to flatten the curve of this virus. I cannot underscore the seriousness of following these measures to help our neighbors, friends, and families.

If you have any symptoms, pick up the phone and call your doctor or local public health provider for consultation, instead of driving to the doctor’s office or emergency room.

You can contact your local county or tribal health departments by finding their contact information through the online map HERE.

The coronavirus Task Force has launched an informational phone line at 1-888-333-0461 and Montanans can also email questions to covid19info@mt.gov.

A website has also been set up to keep Montanans apprised of Task Force actions at COVID19.mt.gov. You can also visit the DPHHS website at www.dphhs.mt.gov for the most up to date and timely health information related to the coronavirus.

Remember the simple steps you can take:
· Cover your coughs and sneezes with a tissue or into your sleeve
· Wash your hands often with soap and water for 20 seconds
· Avoid touching your face
· Stay home if you have cold or flu-like symptoms and avoid close contact with people who are sick.
Thank you for making the tough, but correct decisions each and everyday. It’s going to take all of us working together to overcome these challenges and dynamic times. But as Montanans, I have no doubt that’s what we’ll do.

Sincerely,

STEVE BULLOCK
Governor