NFLA

There is essentially no change from the May Outlook for Northwest Montana.  I do see some indication that we might not have an extended season into October which would be good.  On the other hand, the monsoonal moisture that will be pushing up into the Yellowstone country could very well increase our dry lightning levels without bringing the moisture.  That could seriously affect us given hot and dry conditions.

We’ll look forward to the July issuance, but count on a very hot and dry July and August into September with a higher than normal wildfire activity level.  Get gutters cleaned out, lawns irrigated and mowed, and cleanup completed.

Here is the link to the June National Wildland Fire Outlook:  https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf

Here is a note from Allen Chrisman, NFLA’s co-chair for the Fire Mitigation Committee… Here is the link to the June National Wildland Fire Outlook:

https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf

There is essentially no change from the May Outlook for Northwest Montana.  I do see some indication that we might not have an extended season into October which would be good.  On the other hand, the monsoonal moisture that will be pushing up into the Yellowstone country could very well increase our dry lightning levels without bringing the moisture.  That could seriously affect us given hot and dry conditions.

We’ll look forward to the July issuance, but count on a very hot and dry July and August into September with a higher than normal wildfire activity level.  Get gutters cleaned out, lawns irrigated and mowed, and cleanup completed.

Well, I had hoped that we would get a better forecast for the fire season.  This doesn’t look good.

Northern Rockies: Normal Significant Wildland Fire Potential is expected for the Northern Rockies in May and June. For July and August, Above Normal Significant Wildland Fire Potential is expected from central Montana west through the Idaho Panhandle, excluding the Beaverhead Deer Lodge National forest. In this and other, eastern locations Normal Significant Wildland Fire Potential is expected.

With near average temperatures and precipitation expected in May and June, Normal Significant Wildland Fire Potential is anticipated across the region as fuels will still be transitioning to drier levels, especially at higher elevations west of the Continental Divide. In early July, higher elevations may still be relatively moist due to the enhanced snowpack in the western areas. By the last half of July, however, heavy cured fine fuel loading and drier larger fuels are expected to elevate potential to “above-normal” in the Idaho and western/central Montana areas since the temperature and precipitation outlooks favor warmer and drier conditions. Above Normal potential with warmer and drier than average conditions will continue in August in those locations depicted on the maps. Southwestern Montana, Yellowstone National Park, and the Absaroka-Beartooth mountains/plateau, southwest Montana will remain near normal based on anticipated monsoonal moisture bringing adequate precipitation to these areas through the entire outlook period.

While the forecast for lightning is not included in this Outlook, the reference to monsoonal moisture moving into SW Montana implies that those air masses will be present in the Northern Rockies.  Even if the air masses dry out before hitting Northwest Montana, the residual moisture can lead to significant convection and lightning.  We can be hot and dry, but if we don’t get starts we can be OK.  If we get a lot of dry lightning under hot dry conditions, it will be very challenging.

We haven’t had back to back extreme fire seasons in the Northern Rockies in my experience.  However, we might be turning a corner on that this year.  Keep your fingers crossed and get your fuels work done and be squared away for initial attack.  Could be a bad one.

Download the full report from here. https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf

2017 was a record year for Wildland Fire in Montana with some 1.4 million acres burned. Fortunately, the North Fork escaped large fires. However, with our long history of large fires in 1988, 2001 and 2003, it is only a matter of time before we see large fire return to the North Fork. Many North Fork residents have taken advantage of the free Wildland Fire Risk Assessments provided by both the Flathead Economic Policy Center (FEPC) and Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. If you are interested in a free Assessment, fill out the attached form and return it to the FEPC. Grant money is available to assist landowners with hazardous fuels projects if they are interested.