Author: Allen Chrisman

This is a new closure order from Rob Davies, District Ranger of the Forest Service, via Allen Chrisman on the Kootenai, as a result of the Gibraltar Ridge Fire in the Eureka area.

This closure effects travel from the North Fork over Trail Creek onto the Kootenai.  We will be posting signs today at the North Fork (junction of North Fork Road and Trail Creek Road), and at Tuchuck Trail Head.

This also affects the Pacific Northwest Trail.  We will post the order at strategic trailheads for the PNW in coordination with the Kootenai.

I see that according to Kootenai Dispatch WildCAD, there is a new large fire (estimated 500 acres) 7 miles east of Eureka in lower Graves Creek.  It is about 20 miles due west of the North Fork Road at Whale Creek.  A Type 2 Incident Management Team has been ordered.  Rick Connell’s Western Montana IMT has been reserved, which means they will be assigned as soon as the inbriefing is set up.

I can’t forecast the fire movement from what I know, but it would appear to be unlikely that it will progress northeast up Graves Creek and come down Trail Creek.  I think it is more likely it will make runs to the east following lateral drainages.  If it came over the top, it would run into the Wedge Canyon fire scar above Hornet.  And I’m not sure how those regenerated stands would affect fire behavior.  It would be easier for an overhead team to construct fuel breaks and fire out compared to heavy timber fuels.

I attached the current Google Earth images showing the approximate fire location.

My take is that this is a serious fire that is going to cover some ground.  The North Fork needs to be alert, but it will be several operational periods before the fire is positioned to pose a direct threat to residents in the Valley.  Lincoln, Bill, feel free to correct that assessment.  Lincoln should be assigned with Connell as his Liaison Officer unless he has too much going on in Flathead County.

Keep your heads up, folks.  It looks like my Team will be up and available tomorrow.  Thanks.  Allen

If you want to keep up-to-date on this fire, check out InciWeb. And this is pretty cool. This fire has its own Facebook page.

In Northwest Montana we are still forecasted for a “normal” season, but with normal fire season in August, it should be busy.

As Lynn probably mentioned at the NFLA Meeting Saturday, things are drying out quickly.  I was amazed at how dry the fine fuels around our cabins have gotten in just the past week without watering.  This reminds me of 2007 in the Flathead, where we had a very busy season after incredible heat in early July.  Our live fuel moistures are reasonable, but the dead fuel moistures are dropping radically (hear the crunching under your feet when you walk through the woods???)

Here is a link to the current Wildland Fire Outlook:  https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf

Stay tuned, be careful, and make sure our Firewise Day is on your calendar for July 19 (tap here to get a PDF copy).  Byron Bonney’s presentation is not to be missed!

The following information was provided by Allen Chrisman…

Here is the June 1 National Outlook for Wildland Fire Potential. It is forecasting a slower than normal fire season for the Northern Rockies for June and July, moving to a “normal” fire season in August and September. That is the good news. Locally, the hot dry weather we have had recently makes things a bit more combustible.

Bottom line, even if we are still in the active burning period (by permit, of course), let’s be careful out there. I passed up burning last week because it appeared that things would carry just too well with the hot dry weather.

Mark your calendars for the North Fork’s 2017 Firewise Day, which will be held the morning of July 19, preceding the Summer Interlocal. For more information, see “Fire Mitigation Committee Report, Late Winter 2017” by Molly.

Here is the latest National Wildfire Potential Outlook covering July, August and September: http://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf

So, we are expecting a “normal” fire season in Northwestern Montana, which will begin as early as mid-July and last through the end of September. Normal means that we will have a number of lightning fires, and fires that occur with good position with heavy fuels on active burning days will move significantly. If we get recurring moisture that keeps the live fuels moist it can reduce the severity of fires absent wind events. But we will see those effects diminish as shrubs cure out in September.

Attached is the October 1 National Fire Potential Outlook:  http://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf.

While it states that the fire season is over in the Northern Rockies: 

Northern Rockies: Significant wildland fire potential will be normal for the outlook period October, November, and December 2015 through January 2016.

Wet storms in early September greatly reduced fire potential with most indices across the geographic area near normal conditions. Some increases occurred with the warm and dry conditions over southeastern and south central Montana but shorter days and cooler nights will keep fuel moisture rising into the fall. Some evidence of drought stress in live vegetation across the western half of the area will likely be a factor for the 2016 fire season. El Niño conditions deep into the winter suggest poor snow conditions and continuation of drought across the area.

Fire season for 2015 is essentially over for the Northern Rockies. However, significant wind events during the fall-to-winter transition could produce brief fire concerns in the fine fuels east of the continental divide until snow falls. This will likely be delayed given the forecast of El Niño conditions.

Here is the latest Wildland Fire Potential Outlook:  http://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf.

They have been pretty accurate this year in their forecasts. Here are a couple of excerpts from the Outlook regarding the Northern Rockies:

Northern Rockies: Above normal significant wildland fire potential will continue over northern Idaho and northwestern Montana from August through mid-September, with conditions returning to normal for the remainder of the outlook period through November. The rest of the Area will see normal significant wildland fire potential for the entire outlook period.

Long range data suggests that typical hot and dry conditions can be expected for August and early September, which would promote normal activity during the peak of fire season in most areas, except northwest Montana and N Idaho where above normal activity is possible. The same data suggests a pattern shift to a cool, wet pattern during the second half of September. Should this occur, it should be sufficient to begin to wind down fire season 2015.

Looking beyond September, the Northern Rockies Region is typically out of fire season. However, significant wind events during the transition from fall to winter can sometimes produce brief flare ups of activity mainly east of the Continental Divide until the snow falls. Given that this will be an El Niño fall and early winter, chances are good that the arrival of the winter snow will be late.
While it mentions elsewhere in the report that the dead fuels in Northern Idaho and Western Montana have extremely low moisture content, they also note that the live fuels are cured, dry and available. We might be in a little better shape up the North Fork in terms of live fuels, especially those that are shaded and not out in the open. This is small consolation, however, since as we have observed, fires will move quickly through the dead component and consume the live component even if the live component does not actively assist in the spread.

So, I’m looking forward to the middle of September and hope that cooler, moister conditions move in as forecasted. Until then, keep your fire tools sharp and your water handy…

Below is the most recent ERC (Energy Release Component) graph for our area (Glacier Park and Bob Marshall Complex) which represents the receptiveness and volatility of the forest fuels:

You can see that the moisture we got in July moderated the ERC’s for 2015 (blue line) significantly compared to the path they were on before the 4th of July. We are just returning to the levels we saw at the first of July, but are well ahead and above an average year (grey line), and will be getting back close to the max again (red line). Let’s hope we get good moisture out of the system forecasted early this week, without the lightning….