[You can download the May 1 Fire Season Outlook by clicking here (PDF format, 1.03MB).]
The Outlook is ominous for Northwest Montana. This is early — the June 1 and July 1 Outlooks will be much more reliable. However, it is enough to make us concerned about the fire season, more so than usual.
Time to get things squared away while we can. I’ll send the June and July Outlooks when available.
Thanks to all. Allen
There is good news in the September/October/November National Wildland Fire Outlook that resonates with what we have seen in the North Fork. They accurately captured the season-slowing event we had on August 27 where we had widespread precip of 0.20” to 0.50” and snow on the mountains. As you all saw, that coupled with seasonal trend to shorter burning period, cooler temperatures especially overnight, and higher relative humidity recovery overnight has significantly changed fire behavior, even though we saw premature curing of grasses and shrubs (the early color change was based more on drought than photo period in my mind).
We have returned to “Normal” fire behavior forecast for Northwestern Montana for the forecast period. “The latest climate outlooks forecast the entire region to have above average temperatures and near-average precipitation for the period from September through November.” It appears that there may be a higher fire risk in Eastern Montana, but for us a return to Normal is very good. So, while it would be nice for us to see a forecast for a season-ending event in the next few weeks, in reality I think we are going to slide gradually out of fire season. I would be surprised if we see any return to significant fire indices in the Flathead. That doesn’t preclude some moderately warm temperatures and strong winds from a passing dry cold front that would cause any active fire to get up and run for a few hours with available fuels. I don’t believe we have that potential in either Whale Butte or Coal Ridge, but a new start in heavy, dry fuels could be a problem, but I think that would be a relatively uncommon event.
All in all, a good forecast for us. And we might have some good fall weather for outdoor work and burning, once we get out of fire season!
Tap below to download a copy of the September/October/November National Wildland Fire Outlook: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf.
Great turnout for the Fire Training at the Hall last Thursday with some 25 people in attendance!
Gary Mahugh did an excellent job going over some of the fundamentals. Thanks to Dick Leigh for being the energy behind this. And thanks to Janet Leigh for the potluck pulled pork main dish!
We’ll be thinking about hosting a similar session next June, and include it on the calendar if there is interest.
The August 1st National Wildfire Outlook Potential is very consistent with what has been forecasted before and what we are seeing up the North Fork. Bottom line for us is that we will see an above average August and September in terms of fire activity. No real relief during that period, however the forecast is confident that the season will close out in late September/early October, which is a relief.
We received just a little bump of moisture a week ago – but all that did was extend the live fuel moistures for a week or so. We’ll be curing out fast without additional precip, and at some point the minor amounts (less than a quarter of an inch) will not do much at all. I was on the Kootenai Forest this week, and we need to feel fortunate in the North Fork that we have relatively moist fuels. They don’t, and the number of fires they are staffing reflects that.
Stay watchful – water what you can, keep your grass mowed and trimmed, and watch for smoke.
Here is the link to the August 1st National Wildfire Outlook Potential: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf.
The July/August/September Outlook is posted. The bottom line is that it could be worse. They are forecasting a above normal July for North Idaho and the Kootenai west of us. I know our precip the last two weeks has made a difference, but it won’t last if we get another flash drought.
All in all, the forecast has seemed to moderate from the June forecast. Still, August and September will be Above Normal for us – and will last until late in September or early October. The monsoonal moisture is forecasted to push up into Southwestern Montana, which still means we may get dry lightning out on the edge of those air masses.
To get a copy of the report, tap here https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf
There is essentially no change from the May Outlook for Northwest Montana. I do see some indication that we might not have an extended season into October which would be good. On the other hand, the monsoonal moisture that will be pushing up into the Yellowstone country could very well increase our dry lightning levels without bringing the moisture. That could seriously affect us given hot and dry conditions.
We’ll look forward to the July issuance, but count on a very hot and dry July and August into September with a higher than normal wildfire activity level. Get gutters cleaned out, lawns irrigated and mowed, and cleanup completed.
Here is the link to the June National Wildland Fire Outlook: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf
Well, I had hoped that we would get a better forecast for the fire season. This doesn’t look good.
Northern Rockies: Normal Significant Wildland Fire Potential is expected for the Northern Rockies in May and June. For July and August, Above Normal Significant Wildland Fire Potential is expected from central Montana west through the Idaho Panhandle, excluding the Beaverhead Deer Lodge National forest. In this and other, eastern locations Normal Significant Wildland Fire Potential is expected.
With near average temperatures and precipitation expected in May and June, Normal Significant Wildland Fire Potential is anticipated across the region as fuels will still be transitioning to drier levels, especially at higher elevations west of the Continental Divide. In early July, higher elevations may still be relatively moist due to the enhanced snowpack in the western areas. By the last half of July, however, heavy cured fine fuel loading and drier larger fuels are expected to elevate potential to “above-normal” in the Idaho and western/central Montana areas since the temperature and precipitation outlooks favor warmer and drier conditions. Above Normal potential with warmer and drier than average conditions will continue in August in those locations depicted on the maps. Southwestern Montana, Yellowstone National Park, and the Absaroka-Beartooth mountains/plateau, southwest Montana will remain near normal based on anticipated monsoonal moisture bringing adequate precipitation to these areas through the entire outlook period.
While the forecast for lightning is not included in this Outlook, the reference to monsoonal moisture moving into SW Montana implies that those air masses will be present in the Northern Rockies. Even if the air masses dry out before hitting Northwest Montana, the residual moisture can lead to significant convection and lightning. We can be hot and dry, but if we don’t get starts we can be OK. If we get a lot of dry lightning under hot dry conditions, it will be very challenging.
We haven’t had back to back extreme fire seasons in the Northern Rockies in my experience. However, we might be turning a corner on that this year. Keep your fingers crossed and get your fuels work done and be squared away for initial attack. Could be a bad one.
Download the full report from here. https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf
2017 was a record year for Wildland Fire in Montana with some 1.4 million acres burned. Fortunately, the North Fork escaped large fires. However, with our long history of large fires in 1988, 2001 and 2003, it is only a matter of time before we see large fire return to the North Fork. Many North Fork residents have taken advantage of the free Wildland Fire Risk Assessments provided by both the Flathead Economic Policy Center (FEPC) and Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. If you are interested in a free Assessment, fill out the attached form and return it to the FEPC. Grant money is available to assist landowners with hazardous fuels projects if they are interested.
Here’s a message from Rob Davies, District Ranger for the Flathead National Forest who is hosting this year’s winter interlocal.
The meeting will be held at the Glacier National Park, Community building, (the usual winter spot) in West Glacier, instead of the Hungry Horse Forest Service Conference room.
Date: Wed Feb 21
Place: Community Building, Glacier Ntl Park, West Glacier, MT
Time: 10:00 am to 1:00 pm
Tap here to get a draft of the questions that will be covered.
I’ll bring some snacks, coffee and tea. If you wish to bring additional snacks, treats, and potluck items, ……. That would be greatly appreciated.
See you there.
Rob
Forest Service Shield
Rob Davies, District Ranger, Forest Service
Flathead National Forest, Hungry Horse – Glacier View Ranger Districts
p: 406-387-3801 c: 406-640-0921 f: 406-387-3889
rdavies@fs.fed.us
PO Box 190340
Hungry Horse, MT, MT 59919
http://www.fs.fed.us
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We are in good shape being out of season with reasonable moisture – snowpack is around 123% of normal for the Flathead. I was just in Albuquerque last week, and they are in continued drought with their ski area unable to open because they have more bare ground than they do snow cover. Grim. Jackson Wyoming just cancelled a Skijoring event due to lack of snow as well.
I’ll keep you posted as things change going into the spring and continue into the fire season. Fire season will be what it is, of course, but it is interesting to me to see how other parts of the country are being set up for active fire season. That obviously affects availability of resources nationally when we do get active.
Be thankful we have as much snow as we do. It can’t hurt.
Here is the link to the February 1 National Wildland Fire Potential Outlook that covers February, March and April:
https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf
Thanks! Allen